Northern Nigeria crisis: How climate change is contributing to increasing conflicts
Climate change is the biggest threat to security that modern humans have ever faced.
That was the ominous saying of the influential naturalist David Attenborough at the UNSC (United Nations Security Council) meeting in February 2021. In the same breath, António Guterres, the UN Secretary-General, added that if humanity continues in its current path in terms of carbon emissions, we are bound to “face the collapse of everything that gives us our security.” A fact supported by MI6 — the British Secret Intelligence Service — who has placed climate change as their foremost international foreign policy.
We already see the evidence of the threats presented by climate change, from massive flooding in western Europe and unprecedented levels of heatwaves in North America to changes in locust patterns in the horn of Africa and desertification of the Sahel region to the melting arctic ice caps and reduced fish population in the south China sea.
All these have had different ramifications and affected various aspects of human lives, including increasing migration, fish and food insecurity, water weaponization, and more vulnerable coastal cities.
Looking at the impact that climate change is having globally, these beg the question of whether climate change is contributing to increasing conflicts, especially in Northern Nigeria. According to climate experts, climate change is a “threat multiplier.” That is, it aggravates existing causes of conflict or ongoing tensions.
While a link between climate change and armed conflict is yet to be established, studies have shown that it is a contributing factor.
A study on the impact of climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa revealed that a 1% increase in temperature could have increased the risk of civil wars by 4.5%.
Further supported by a study led by Stanford University, which revealed that climate has influenced between 3% and 20% of armed conflict risk over the last century, and its influence is bound to increase as the climate situation worsens.
Northern Nigeria crisis — the cause
The causes of continuous conflicts and the recent kidnapping activities in Northern Nigeria are multi-faceted and cannot be attributed to one factor. While economic factor is the leading underlying cause, other factors, including climate change, also contribute to tensions in this turbulent region.
Northern Nigeria is a region that has been rife with conflicts, even before the 20th century. Researchers attributed these conflicts mainly to the masses’ struggle for scarce communal resources, driven by corruption, weak political willpower, and divisive reforms. These are in addition to religious tensions and clashes in socio-cultural beliefs.
According to the Nigerian government, the jihadist machine of the agent of the current conflict — Boko Haram — has been technically defeated. But the religious extremists in that region have employed a new strategy, spearheaded by ISWAP (the Islamic States West Africa Province), that feeds on the effects of years of government neglect and the impact of climate change and climate variability.
But that is not the subject of this article. What we are exploring is the impact of climate change on northern Nigeria.
Increased climate variability is already evident in northern Nigeria
When extreme climate change occurs, we witness increased climate variability, leading to more frequent and intense extreme weather events, such as drought, storms, heatwaves, rising sea levels, warming oceans, and melting glaciers.
The economy of the northern Nigeria region is heavily reliant on farming, fishing, and livestock production. The water supply needed for these intensive commercial activities is mainly generated from groundwater supplied by the Lake Chad and North Niger basins.
Over the years, these essential water basins have been affected by varying degrees of rainfall, river flows, and temperature caused by man-made climate actions, leaving townships and villages vulnerable to water shortages, droughts, and flooding. A reality further compounded by not-thought-through policies and constructions, affecting the livelihood of a population across three sub-Saharan African countries, including Nigeria, which is heavily dependent on it.
What do these imply?
When all these combine with pre-existing causes of conflict in the region, we have an amplified tension, which is bound to spill over to other regions, as we already see in the herdsmen-farmers violence in southwest Nigeria, resulting in the rise of Yoruba separatist groups.
Farming and fishing activities are made nearly impossible by drought and dwindling water supply, a problem further exacerbated by armed groups blocking access to essential natural resources, including parts of Lake Chad. Left with no other means of livelihood and lack of economic investment or interventions from federal or state governments, they either take up banditry or join the jihadist groups prevalent in that region.
The same applies to pastoralists, who are confronted by shrinking arable land or farmers moving inward and encroaching on their traditional herding paths due to increased flooding and fluctuating temperatures. With no other livelihood options, they take up arms or move further south, leading to clashes with farmers.
Armed conflicts in the region coupled with climate change have led to over 2.9 million internally displaced persons, some of which return to their community, mainly due to social and economic inequality, and join Boko Haram.
All these have continued to sustain armed groups and banditry, fueling violence and other forms of armed conflicts in the region.
Should the fact that climate change is contributing to the northern Nigeria crisis be taken with a grain of salt?
Like I mentioned at the beginning of this article, the problem is multi-faceted. That is, various factors are contributing to these increasing conflicts, barring economic factors. We can never know if climate change contributes to increasing conflicts until we interview the various players in the middle of these crises or test the hypothesis by solving the effects of climate change in northern Nigeria.
Apparently, the impact of climate change in the Northern Nigeria crisis has been established through two studies by Adelphi — analyzing climate change and conflict risks in the Lake Chad region.
The studies concluded that increased climate variability caused by climate change amplifies livelihood insecurity and social tensions.
Hence, climate change undermines community resilience, leaving them vulnerable to Boko Haram recruitment, fueling the conflict between pastoralists and farmers over scarce resources, and continually pushing people into the lucrative business of banditry and kidnapping.
Conclusion
I cannot claim not to be ignorant about the issues behind the Northern Nigeria crisis. But there is no denying that climate change exacerbates the crisis caused by pre-existing problems in the Northern Nigeria region, such as poor economic investment, high-level financial and social inequality, political corruption, and deep extremist Islamic indoctrination.
The government exhibition of military might may not be adequate to deal with these ongoing crises, as it’s not combating the underlying problems. The federal government needs to review its strategies for northern Nigeria, engage climate change experts, and explore opinions that tackle the root causes.
